BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Annex)

bp-energy-outlook-2017의 부록사항입니다. Annex

Key figures: Energy

Key figures: Macro, energy intensity and CO 2 emissions

Digital revolution mobility scenario: assumptions
Assumptions are illustrative only and can be scaled up or down to consider alternative calibrations.

Assumptions in 2035:	Impact on oil demand (Mb/d)
Electric vehicles (EVs): No additional EVs relative to the base case.	0
Autonomous vehicles (AVs): 200 million AVs. Each AV is 25% more fuel efficient than a conventional car.	-0.7
Car sharing: Occurs via AVs. On average each AV is driven twice as many miles per year as a conventional car - doubling the disruptive impact of AVs.	-0.7
Ride pooling: 40% of urban car journeys are pooled and 25% of all car miles are urban, so 10% of all miles are affected by pooling. Each pooled ride has twice as many occupants per vehicle, which reduces total mileage by 5%. Pooling occurs via all car types (EVs and ICEs) so the effects are distributed proportionately.	-1.1
Demand for car travel: The range reflects uncertainty about the magnitude of the cost reduction, the sensitivity of demand to any fall in costs, and any additional impact of new technology on demand. The upper bound assumes the cost of digital car travel falls by up to 33% and a price elasticity of demand for travel of up to -1. This boosts miles travelled by digital cars by up to 33%, which translates to an increase in total miles travelled of up to 7.5%. In addition, digital technologies create new sources of demand from new user groups (the old, young, and empty cars driven autonomously), which boost miles travelled by up to a further 7.5%.	0 to + 2.8

Electric revolution mobility scenario: assumptions
Assumptions are illustrative only and can be scaled up or down to consider alternative calibrations.

Assumptions in 2035:	Impact on oil demand (Mb/d)
Electric vehicles (EVs): An extra 200 million EVs relative to the base case, all battery-electric vehicles.	-2.8
Autonomous vehicles (AVs): 200 million AVs, all of which are electric. Each AV is 25% more fuel efficient than a conventional car, but since AVs are electric these efficiency gains only affect electricity demand, not oil demand.	0
Car sharing: Occurs via EVs. 200m EVs are driven twice as many miles per year as a conventional car - doubling the disruptive impact of the extra EVs.	-2.8
Ride pooling: 40% of urban car journeys are pooled and 25% of all car miles are urban, so 10% of all miles are affected by pooling. Each pooled ride has twice as many occupants per vehicle, which reduces total mileage by 5%. Ride pooling occurs via EVs so all of the reduction in miles falls on ICEs (ICE miles fall 10%).	-1.8
Demand for car travel: As with the digital revolution, new technologies reduce the cost of travel via electric cars and enable greater access to previously under-served user groups. But since all of the new technologies are implemented via electric vehicles, the additional miles travelled are powered by electricity not oil, so oil demand is unaffected.	0

Comparison with other energy outlooks

Notes on comparisons

• Long-run energy projections are available from many organizations. The list here is not exhaustive, but illustrates the range of views within a sample of projections.
Some of the organizations represented here produce more than one projection; where possible we have tried to select a ‘central’ or ‘reference’ case.
• All the outlooks show continuing modest growth in oil, with gas growing more rapidly than oil and coal. There are some significant differences among the outlooks, at both the regional and fuel level, which reflect differences on key assumptions, such as: the availability and cost of oil and gas supplies; the speed of deployment of new technologies; the pace of structural change in China; and the impact of energy and environmental policies.

Technical note: in order to facilitate the comparison, all the outlooks have been rebased to a common set of data for 2015, taken from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The IEA case shown is the New Policies Scenario, for IHS it is the Rivalry Scenario. The EIA, MIT and IEEJ cases are each publication’s reference case.

• 장기적 에너지 예측은 많은 조직에서 가능합니다. 여기에있는 목록은 완전한 것이 아니며 예상 샘플 내의보기 범위를 보여줍니다.
여기에 표시된 조직 중 일부는 둘 이상의 예상을 생성합니다. 가능한 경우 '중앙'또는 '참조'사례를 선택하려고했습니다.
• 모든 전망은 기름과 석탄보다 더 빠르게 성장하는 가스로 계속해서 완만 한 성장세를 보이고 있음을 보여줍니다. 석유 및 가스 공급의 가용성 및 비용과 같은 주요 가정에 대한 차이를 반영하는 지역 및 연료 수준에서의 전망간에 몇 가지 중요한 차이가 있습니다. 새로운 기술의 전개 속도; 중국의 구조 변화 속도; 에너지 및 환경 정책의 영향.

기술적 인 참고 사항 : 비교를 용이하게하기 위해 모든 전망은 BP의 세계 에너지 통계 조사에서 취한 2015 년의 공통 데이터 세트로 리베이스되었습니다. 여기에 나와있는 IEA 사례는 새로운 정책 시나리오이며 IHS의 경우 경쟁 시나리오입니다. EIA, MIT 및 IEEJ 사례는 각 출판물의 참조 사례입니다.

Comparison and other key data sources

Comparison data sources:
IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016 , Paris, France, November 2016
EIA: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016, Washington, D.C., United States, May 2016
MIT: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook, Cambridge, MA, United States, 2016
IEEJ: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016, Tokyo, Japan, October 2016
IHS: IHS Energy, Rivalry: the IHS Planning Scenario, July 2016
PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Scenario Planning Guidebook, Appendix, February 2016
XOM: ExxonMobil, 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, December 2016
CNPC: CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Energy Outlook 2050, 2016
Greenpeace, Energy Revolution, September 2015
Other key data sources:
BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2016
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016
UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, New York, United States, 2016

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding changes to the fuel mix, global economic growth, population and productivity growth, energy consumption, energy efficiency, mobility developments, policy support for renewable energies, sources of energy supply and growth of carbon emissions.
Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; demographic changes; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. BP disclaims any obligation to update this presentation. Neither BP p.l.c. nor any of its subsidiaries (nor their respective officers, employees and agents) accept liability for any inaccuracies or omissions or for any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other losses or damages of whatsoever kind in connection to this presentation or any information contained in it.

Unless noted otherwise, data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and historical energy data up to 2015 are consistent with the 2016 edition of the Review. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in terms of real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) at 2010 prices.

성명

이 프레젠테이션은 미래 예측 진술, 특히 연료 혼합, 세계 경제 성장, 인구 및 생산성 증가, 에너지 소비, 에너지 효율성, 이동성 개발, 재생 가능 에너지에 대한 정책 지원, 에너지 공급원 및 탄소 배출 증가에 관한 내용을 담고 있습니다. .
미래 예측 진술은 위험과 불확실성을 포함한다. 왜냐하면 이벤트와 관련이 있으며 미래에 발생할 상황이나 상황에 의존하기 때문이다. 실제 결과는 제품 공급, 수요 및 가격 등 다양한 요인에 따라 다를 수 있습니다. 정치적 안정성; 일반적인 경제 조건; 인구 통계 학적 변화; 법률 및 규정 개발; 새로운 기술의 가용성; 자연 재해 및 악천후; 전쟁과 테러 또는 사보타주 행위; 이 프레젠테이션의 다른 곳에서 논의 된 다른 요소들도 포함됩니다. BP는이 프레젠테이션을 업데이트 할 의무를지지 않습니다. BP p. 이 프리젠 테이션과 관련된 부정확성 또는 누락 또는 직접, 간접, 특별, 결과 또는 기타 손실이나 손해에 대해 책임을지지 않습니다.

별도의 언급이없는 한 데이터 정의는 세계 에너지 BP 통계적 검토를 기반으로하며 2015 년까지의 역사적인 에너지 데이터는 검토의 2016 년 판과 일치합니다. GDP (국내 총생산)는 2010 년 가격에 실제 구매력 패리티 (PPP)로 표시됩니다.

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Welcome to the 2017 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Base case: Primary energy)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ oil fuel by fuel detail)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Natural gas fuel by fuel detail)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ key issue)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Main revision)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Key uncertainties)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Beyond 2035)

[재테크] - BP 2017 에너지전망(+ Annex)